Net overseas migration to increase this year

Publish Date: Sep 02, 2014

Net overseas migration (NOM) in Australia is expected to increase this year, before decreasing in 2017-18, according to a report by the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). 

?The DIPB's The Outlook for Net Overseas Migration June 2014 report gives up-to-date insight into the current migration trends in Australia. 

The NOM for the year ending September 30 2014 is expected to be 246,300. This is an increase from the latest available figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The ABS estimate for the year ending December 31 2013 was 235,800. 

DIPB predict that the NOM will steadily increase to the year ending June 2016 to 255,200, however by June 2018 the NOM will have decreased to below current rates to 235,800. 

The Outlook for Net Overseas Migration is a quarterly report released by the DIPB. In making these forecasts the report took into consideration policies that had been announced by early August 2014, such as the changes to student visa processing. The forecast is also based on the assumption there will be no policy changes in the future.

Forecast arrivals to Australia

If the results are further broken down the predicted total number of arrivals for the year ending September 30 2014, the amount  is 511,500. The majority of arrivals will have temporary entrant visas.

The temporary entrants are forecast to hold a student visa (119,000), followed by working holiday makers (63,000), visitors (47,400), temporary work (skilled) (subclass 457), with 44,300 arrivals and all other temporary visas (7,400).

The report states that an increasing number of student visas are being given out due to higher demand. The high demand may be due to the policy change mentioned earlier that student visa processing for certain low immigration risk providers has been streamlined, according to the report.  

However, due to high unemployment the number of arrivals holding a temporary work (skilled) (subclass 457) visa is expected to decrease.

Permanent entrant categories include skill (39,500), family (35,200), humanitarian (14,500) and all other permanent visas (4,800). The report estimates that until the year ending June 2018 the number of arrivals who hold a skill or family visa will remain fairly steady. 

The final entrant categories for arrivals refer to Australian citizens (72,200), New Zealand citizens (47,100) and other visas (17,000). New Zealand citizen arrivals over this period are expected to decline, however the number of Australian citizens migrating to Australia is forecast to increase. 

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